Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Underrated & Underused: Gary Harris

When you think of the top shooting guards in today's NBA, I'm sure you think of guys like Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum, Demar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, and maybe Devin Booker, Avery Bradley, and Rodney Hood but I am here to tell you about a guy who is crashing that party, Gary Harris of the Denver Nuggets. Not only is he a top 6 shooting guard in the league but I will also argue that he is a top 50 player in the NBA.

Harris came out of Michigan State as a sophomore with the urging of his coach Tom Izzo, who has only lost a handful of players leaving early for the NBA (Shannon Brown, Zach Randolph, Jason Richardson, Marcus Taylor, and Harris). After MSU was eliminated from the 2014 NCAA tournament Izzo was asked about Harris and his future, Izzo responded, "I'd be leaning to advising him to make the jump." Izzo is one of the greatest NCAA coaches ever and he has seen a number of talented players come through his system, Draymond Green, Maurice Ager, Mateen Cleaves just to name a few and Harris was one of the best. As a Spartan, Harris averaged 14.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2 assists, and shot 44% from the floor in two seasons. During his freshman season he was named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year, second team All-Big Ten; as a sophomore he earned first team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten Defensive team, and was an honorable mention for the Associated Press All-American Honors. He helped the Spartans to a 27-9 record in his first year along with a Sweet Sixteen berth in the NCAA tournament, in his second year Harris and the Spartans were 29-9 won the Big Ten Championship losing in the Elite Eight to eventual champion UCONN. He entered the NBA draft after his sophomore season.
He was drafted in the 2014 NBA Draft by the Chicago Bulls and traded to the Denver Nuggets. (Looking back at that draft you could argue Harris should have at least been a top 10 pick if not higher) He is an extremely underrated player who I would love to have on my team if I were starting one. He is a player who can do everything for you, score, rebound, assist, and will defend the other teams best player. Harris doesn't put up huge numbers but it's not because he can't, on the Nuggets he doesn't necessarily have to with some of the players around him. That is the one knock I have on him as a player, at times he can seem to passive and doesn't look to score himself. Most players in the NBA are one sided they are really good offensive players but don't contribute on the defensive end (I'm looking at you James Harden) but this is where Harris stands out in my opinion. This could be another reason he doesn't put up huge offensive numbers, he is busy chasing around the other team's best player on defense.

In 57 games last season he put up some really good numbers that people don't know. He was 15th in the NBA in 2 point field goal percentage, 8th in 3 point field goal %, 9th in effective field goal %, 14th in offensive rating but only had an 18.6 usage rate on the Nuggets. His numbers are very similar this year and the one thing it proves to me is the Nuggets are not using Harris enough or in the right ways. He is a really good efficient shooter that is proven by his numbers but his usage rate is extremely low for someone with his shooting numbers. With Paul Millsap missing up to 3 months it will be interesting to see if the Nuggets run more of their offense through Harris but his previous years say they will not. His defense is only getting better as well, he is 10th in the league in steals, 4th in steals per game, and has a 108.2 defensive rating this year. He is usually guarding the other team's best offensive player as well so these stats should be even more impressive.

I have Gary Harris ranked as the 6th best shooting guard in the NBA behind Klay, Butler, Beal, CJ, and DeRozan right now but ahead of Bradley, Booker, and Hood. He also has the opportunity to jump over some of those other guys if he gets the chances with the Nuggets. He is only 23 with his best chances ahead of him, look at a guy like Tobias Harris a lot of people wrote him off but he is having his best season in his 7th NBA season and being 25 years old so Harris has a lot of room to grow. Right now he is not putting up huge stats that everyone talks about (points, rebounds, assists, etc.) but like I said before he has never been the first option on the Nuggets and he probably hasn't even been the third or fourth option. Obviously the Nuggets see something in him though, they locked him up with a huge 4-year $84 million extension this offseason. The Nuggets had a big offseason extending Harris and signing Paul Millsap with both guys expected to be the corner stones to this season and the seasons ahead. With Millsap set to miss a chunk of the season the Nuggets need someone to step up and lucky for them they already have the man to do it in Gary Harris.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Do You (yes, you the reader) Qualify for the Hall of Fame?

A few weeks ago I wrote a piece about how we overvalue championships in professional sports. It got me thinking on another topic: We also need to reevaluate the way we view the Hall of Fame and players who belong in it. I was watching a Los Angeles Chargers game a few weeks ago (awful I know) and the announcer mentioned something along the lines of, "there are 2 future Hall of Fame players on the field today." He was talking about Antonio Gates (which I agree with) and Philip Rivers which puzzled me a little bit. Does Philip Rivers belong in the Hall of Fame? This question transcends all sports. Is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer in the MLB? Is Pau Gasol a NBA Hall of Famer?

Let's start with a comparison between two NFL QBs:

Player A: 48,096 yards passing, 64.2 completion %, 329 touchdowns, 163 interceptions, 100-85 record in 189 regular season games. 2,165 yards, 60.3 completion %, 11 TDs, 9 INTs, 4-5 record in 9 playoff games. 0 Super Bowl appearances.

Player B: 51,475 yards passing, 56.9 completion %, 300 TDs, 226 INTs, 148-82-1 record in 234 regular season games. 4,964 yards, 54.5 completion %, 27 TDs, 21 INTs, 14-7 record in 22 playoff games. 5 Super Bowl appearances and 2 time Super Bowl champion

Any guesses who these two quarterbacks are? Player A is Philip Rivers and Player B is John Elway, one of the greatest QBs of all time and a Hall of Famer. Looking at the stats, Rivers has put up better numbers but I have never heard anyone mention these two guys in the same breath. Today's NFL is completely different from when Elway was playing, is that a bad thing and should we punish the guys playing today? Absolutely not, the game is played differently today, just look at this stat: Elway attempted over 500 passes six times in his career, Rivers has attempted over 500 passes the past 8 seasons in a row. So does Philip Rivers belong in the hall with guys like Elway, Aikman, Montana, etc.? I don't think so, he is a great player in today's NFL but is not one of the all time best. We need to reevaluate how we view our Hall of Fame players, they cannot be based solely on stats. The yards passing record gets broken every season and it will continue to do so until the game changes again. Are there NFL QBs who belong in the hall? Definitely. I think of players like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Blake Bortles (hahah just kidding, keep doing you Blake), maybe Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. How do we evaluate players and figure out who deserves to be in the Hall of Fame then? Honestly I'm not sure, there are a lot of advanced metrics we should be looking at but it makes it difficult to evaluate players with how much the game has changed and continues to change especially being tilted towards offense and passing offense.

The NBA and MLB face the same problems as the NFL. The NBA is not as physical as it once was and the rules have changed and made the game more offensive minded then ever before. Rookies are dominating the game like never before, are these guys good players? Absolutely, but they are also playing in a great time to put up monster stats. Another aspect for all of professional sports is players are taking better care of their bodies. In baseball guys aren't eating hot dogs, drinking beer, and smoking cigarettes in the dugout. Tom Brady wrote a book titled TB12 which gives a look at how he has lasted so long at one of the most grueling positions in sports and, for God's sake, he talks about eating avocado ice cream. The technology is helping guys stay in the league longer and prolonging their "peak years." In the NBA look at LeBron, in his 15th NBA season through 14 games he is averaging 38 minutes per game, 28 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. Uhh are you kidding me? For perspective Michael Jordan played 15 seasons and two of those were with the Wizards. It's incredible what LeBron has done in his career regarding his stats and his "ability" to stay healthy. Coming back to the MLB what should we do concerning the steroid epidemic? Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds those guys lit the baseball world on fire but got busted for steroids. Should we discount everything they accomplished? Of course not, I think it's completely absurd these guys are not in the hall. I say, create a separate wing and put players busted for steroids there.

Don't get me wrong I think we have a lot of really good players in professional sports right now, look around at some of the jersey's you see people walking around with. I believe we need to reevaluate how we vote players into the Hall of Fame otherwise everyone will get in and it will water down the importance of "being in the Hall of Fame." There are absolutely Hall of Fame players in sports and there always will be but let's not give the honor to everyone.

Thursday, November 9, 2017

The Case for Jahlil Okafor

Three weeks into the NBA season and there are numerous headlines and hot takes already: are the Cavs as good as we thought they were? How good can the Celtics be with Kyrie and without Gordon Hayward? What is going on with Jahlil Okafor and the 76ers? That last question really got me thinking and I wanted to see what is going on with Okafor and why he has completely fallen out of the rotation for the Sixers.

Jahlil Okafor was the #1 rated high school prospect coming out of Chicago in 2014, he was ranked ahead of guys like Karl Anthony Towns, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, and Devin Booker. He ended up choosing Duke for college and during his one season with the Blue Devils he put up solid stats while winning the 2015 National Championship. While at Duke he put his offensive skills to work, averaging 17.3 points per game, 8.5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and shot 66.7% from the floor. His player efficiency ranking was 30.7 which is top 60 all time in the NCAA and he won the ACC Player of the Year award. For a 6' 11" center his footwork and acumen around the basket was phenomenal. These are just 2 examples of his excellent footwork and play making ability.
Duke ran numerous offensive sets for and through Okafor which speaks to his offensive awareness. He was never a defensive stalwart but playing with Amile Jefferson, Duke was able to overcome those issues. 

Okafor was drafted 3rd overall by the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2015 NBA draft right in the middle of the Sam Hinkie "Process" years. During his first year, he saw 30 minutes per game and rewarded the Sixers, averaging 17.5 points, 7 rebounds, and a 17.1 PER rating and finished 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting. However, year two saw Joel Embiid return and Dario Saric come over from Europe. Both of these moves really diminished Okafor's role on the team. In year two Okafor saw his minutes per game drop to 22.7 and he averaged 11.8 points and 4.8 points. His PER rating fell to 14.8 as well. This is his third year in the league and through 9 games Okafor has only appeared in one game. So what caused this drastic change in his playing time and effectiveness?

The explosion of Embiid really hurt Okafor's role with the Sixers and the signing of Saric didn't help either. I also think the Sam Hinkie "Process" mentality is not great for players and Okafor is a prime example. The "Process" was all about losing (tanking) to acquire as many good drafts picks as possible and then turning those draft picks into top prospects in the draft. A downfall of this thinking in my opinion is you acquire as these picks and if one does not turn out or is not as good as you hope you just replace that player with the next guy. I understand the NBA is a business and there is no such thing as loyalty in sports (Kevin Durant...LeBron...Kyrie) but Okafor put up solid numbers when he got the chance. Is he a good defender? Absolutely not as you can see in this matchup against the Heat.
But he still has the offensive moves to play in the NBA; this is a great move against a really good post defender.

Okafor can still be a good NBA player whether he is starting or coming off the bench as a 6th man type. He is not a good defender or rebounder but pair him up with a good post defender and in today's NBA it will not make much of a difference. I mean Kevin Love is playing center for the Cavs and he is a horrendous defender (still love you K-Love).

So what happens next for Jahlil and the Sixers? He is wasting away on the bench and it is not helping the organization or Okafor's progression. He turns 22 in December...let me say that again HE TURNS 22 IN DECEMBER!!!!!! And this is his 3rd year in the league, he has proven that he can be an asset to a team. The Sixers cannot afford to let him rot on the bench and then have him walk away at the end of the year, in my opinion they have to trade him. The Sixers are one of the most mysterious franchises in the NBA when it comes to player management. Look at how they handled the Embiid situation or even worse how they have handled the Fultz debacle. Okafor is just another mystery when it comes to this franchise. The only problem now is what is his value? There are two types of teams I think the Sixers could move him to, a team looking to build and a contender looking for an offensive minded center. Teams like the Bulls and Hawks are rebuilding and have no hope for a playoff spot this season so why not trade for Okafor and start your rebuilding process around a young offensive center. Also remember Okafor is from Chicago so this could be another selling point for the Bulls. Contending teams that I think could use him are Boston, Miami, Detroit, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City. Boston, Minnesota, and Oklahoma City could use Okafor off the bench as a scoring center. Miami could pair him with Whiteside and Detroit could pair him with Drummond, the problem there is the spacing as none of those guys can spread the defense but they are both great rebounders and defensive centers.

I think Jahlil Okafor is a nice prospect for a team that is willing to make a move for him. He is not helping the Sixers at all and with a change of scenery, a new coach, and new game plan I think he could really flourish.

New Website!

The Going Off Topic is moving! The Anything But Credible Network has added the Going Off Topic blog to their network and even gave me my own...